To what extent are electric vehicles the future of transportation ?

Buy an electric vehicle now or wait? Here’s how to decide.

April 11, 2023  The Washington Post

Chinese-made EVs set to take 25% of European market this year

From the Financial Times March 26, 2024

EU car manufacturers warn that a wave of cheaper models from China will undercut those produced by local companies. A quarter of electric vehicles sold in the EU this year will be made in China, as the country’s new entrants continue to take sales from local rivals, according to analysis from policy group Transport & Environment. 

About 19.5 per cent of battery cars sold in the bloc last year were manufactured in China, according to the company’s research, owing to rising European sales of Chinese-owned brands such as MG and BYD and factors such as US group Tesla using its Shanghai factory to supply parts of the European market.

That percentage will rise to 25.3 per cent in 2024, according to T&E, as Chinese domestic manufacturers continue to take market share from established European brands across the continent. While many western manufacturers including Tesla, BMW and Renault make electric cars in China that they import to Europe, Chinese-branded EVs alone are set to account for 11 per cent of the EU’s electric car market this year, rising to 20 per cent by 2027. Chinese brands such as BYD have already risen from 0.4 per cent of the European EV market in 2019 to 8 per cent of sales last year.

The findings come as Brussels finalises a probe into whether local subsidies have helped electric cars made in China undercut European-made models — an investigation widely expected to lead to an increase in tariffs on EVs coming in from China. 

Carmakers such as Renault and Stellantis have warned that a wave of cheaper Chinese models will undercut those produced by European companies. A 25 per cent tariff — compared with 10 per cent at present — could raise up to €6bn a year for the European Commission, and would “make EU cars competitive with EVs made in China,” the study suggested. 

Chinese-made medium-sized sedans and SUVs — the largest and most profitable segments of the car market — would become more expensive than their European equivalents if manufacturers passed through the higher tariffs, it found. This is likely to drive more local manufacturing by Chinese groups, it added.  “Tariffs will force carmakers to localise EV production in Europe, and that’s a good thing because we want these jobs and skills,” said Julia Poliscanova, policy director at T&E. “But tariffs won’t shield legacy carmakers for long. Chinese companies will build factories in Europe and when that happens our car industry needs to be ready.”

China’s BYD is already building a new factory in Hungary that it expects to begin producing EVs at the end of next year. The company has said it wants to become one of the largest European EV brands by the end of the decade, and to account for one in ten battery cars sold in the region by 2030. However, higher European tariffs on imported EVs also risk catching Tesla, BMW and Renault’s Dacia brand, which all sell battery models in Europe that are manufactured in China, T&E added. 

And many of the Chinese companies already sell EVs in their home market at a fraction of the price charged in Europe — leading analysts to suggest that they would be able to absorb higher tariffs and still be able to make profits on the models.  Already, EVs from Chinese brands sold in Europe are up to 28 per cent cheaper than those from European nameplates. 

BYD’s European boss Michael Shu told the Financial Times last month that local subsidies were less important than “technology” and “efficiency” in making its vehicles cheaper.  “It’s because we invested in this technology much earlier, and much more, than competitors. It’s not because of the subsidy.” 

EVs are booming but electric bikes are really cutting emissions

10 April 2024

The Guardian

Ebikes and mopeds, known as electric micromobility, were responsible for two-thirds of the 1.5m barrels of oil displaced a day by EVs in 2022. Australians are really getting on board with electric cars but the number of electric bikes has also exploded – and data suggests the smaller EVs are having a bigger impact on oil demand.

Electric vehicles as a whole displaced about 1.5m barrels of oil a day globally in 2022, according to Bloomberg. Two-thirds of that – almost 1m barrels a day – was just from electric bikes and mopeds, which are known as electric micromobility. Electric cars were responsible for a little over a sixth, with the remainder accounted for by vans, trucks and buses.

In 2021, Australia consumed about 1m barrels of oil a day across all sectors of the economy. The International Energy Agency IEA estimates that electric vehicles could displace 5m barrels of oil a day by 2030.

A huge part of electric micro mobility’s impact is due to its scale – there were almost 300m two- and three-wheeled electric vehicles globally in 2022, compared with around 26m electric cars. More than 95% of the two-wheelers are located in China, according to the IEA.

Australian electric car sales in the year to March were 98,436 – double that of the year before – and the number of charging stations also grew by more than 75%. Meanwhile, Australians bought more than 193,000 ebikes last year, according to Bicycle Industries Australia.

Ebikes won’t replace a car for a lot of people, but they are often well-suited for shorter trips and the “last kilometre” – the distance between home and the nearest public transport. Experts have calculated that charging an ebike to travel 20km a day, five days a week, only costs about $20 annually – although the bikes themselves can be expensive.

Are electric cars too heavy for roads, bridges and car parks?

29 March 2024

The Guardian

In part eight of our series exploring myths surrounding EVs, we examine whether they will break our infrastructure. Do electric cars really produce fewer carbon emissions? Are EVs too costly to tempt drivers? Is it right to have range anxiety?

Cars have a weight problem. Consider the Mini, designed to save precious fuel during rationing; it has ballooned in size. It is not alone. Cars have got bigger and bigger, with the rise of the SUV only accelerating the trend. Electric cars might look the same ( for now ) but they have one important difference: a heavy battery. Our EV mythbusters series has taken a wild ride through the common (but often misinformed) criticisms of electric cars, from range anxiety to carbon emissions, mining and air pollution. This final instalment asks: will electric cars prove to be too heavy for our roads and infrastructure?

Electric cars can be very heavy. Car magazine said General Motors’ gargantuan Hummer “manages to look even heavier than it is” – an impressive achievement, considering it comes in at more than four tonnes. A third of that is the battery pack capable of powering one of the biggest cars over 300 miles. It is big. A more reasonable electric car would be the Tesla Model Y, at two tonnes. 

Nevertheless, Transport & Environment, a campaign group, calculates that EVs are on average between 300kg and 400kg heavier. For every 150km of range, it adds about 100kg of battery weight, said Lucien Mathieu, the cars director at the Brussels-based group.

Heavier vehicles mean there is more friction between tyres and road, and more stress on whatever is below the car. That means roads deteriorate quicker. Academics at the University of Edinburgh in 2022 calculated that there could be between 20% and 40% additional road wear – think potholes, the driver’s bane – associated with battery vehicles compared with internal combustion engines.

However, the analysis (which did not carry out real-world tests) found that any extra wear is “overwhelmingly caused by large vehicles – buses, heavy goods vehicles”. Road wear from cars and motorcycles is “so low that this immaterial”, they said. Colin Walker, the head of transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank, said in the UK there are very few roads or bridges with weight limits below 7.5 tonnes. Bridges in the UK are generally built to withstand more than their maximum expected load, so they have some leeway for extra weight.

Extra weight from electric cars could cause some problems at the margins, and in the short-term. However, most EV drivers are unlikely to ever experience problems directly.

Ford Throttles Back on Electric Vehicles

5 April 2024

The New York Times

Ford Motor on Thursday delayed the production of at least two new electric cars and said it would pivot to making more hybrids. Its decision was the latest sign that large automakers have been forced to rethink their strategy for electric vehicles because sales for those models are slowing.

The shift by Ford and automakers like General Motors and Mercedes-Benz, which have also pushed back their electric car plans, has been prompted largely by the companies' difficulties in making and selling enough electric cars and doing so profitably.

Sales of such vehicles are still growing, but the pace has slowed sharply in recent months as automakers have tapped out many of the early adopters who were willing to spend more than $50,000 on a new battery-powered car. Because they are still learning how to make the cars and their batteries at lower cost, the companies have not been able to bring out more affordable models.

''Many companies rushed in too fast with E.V.s that were too expensive and there was not as much of a market for them as they thought,'' Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst for transportation and mobility at the research firm Guidehouse Insights, said. ''That's made it a lot tougher to sell those vehicles.''

Some consumers are also reluctant to buy electric models because they can't charge the vehicles at home or are worried that there won't be enough public chargers available when they want to travel more than a couple of hundred miles.

Many car buyers interested in electric vehicles appear to be choosing hybrid cars, which can cost just a few hundred dollars more than comparable gasoline-only models and in some cases offer much better fuel economy. Those cars are also easier for consumers to get used to because they don't have to be plugged in and are fueled like conventional models.

Apple Car : Tim Cook brise le rêve après dix ans d'efforts secrets

29 February 2024

Les Echos

Des milliards de dollars partent en fumée : Tim Cook met fin au projet Titan, lancé il y a dix ans chez Apple pour concevoir une voiture électrique et autonome haut de gamme. Une partie des 2.000 salariés concernés seront réaffectés à l'intelligence artificielle.

Tim Cook aurait-il succombé au pessimisme ambiant ? Ces derniers temps, l'engouement des constructeurs automobiles pour l'électrique connaît une baisse de tension aux Etats-Unis. Le moment choisi par Apple pour annoncer qu'il arrêtait les frais de son projet de véhicule électrique.

Le roi des smartphones a débranché l'opération Titan, lancée en 2014, via une communication du management aux 2.000 employés concernés qui a duré un quart d'heure. Une partie des salariés seront réaffectés à la division intelligence artificielle, sous les ordres de John Giannandrea, tandis que les autres devront trouver un poste ailleurs dans le groupe ou prendre la porte, précise l'agence Bloomberg, qui a révélé ce spectaculaire revirement.

En dix ans, le groupe a dépensé des milliards de dollars de recherche-développement dans le projet Titan, déposé des poignées de brevets, recruté des experts chez BMW, Lamborghini, Porsche ou Aston Martin. Mais sans réussir à stabiliser le management et la stratégie, ni le design ou la technologie de conduite autonome.

Tout cela s'est déroulé dans le plus grand secret, pour ce qui était l'un des projets les plus ambitieux de l'histoire du groupe : inventer une voiture électrique et autonome haut de gamme, pilotable par la voix. Soit « le produit électronique ultime », selon les mots d'un cadre d'Apple.

Elon Musk a salué ce retrait de la scène en postant sur X un émoji au garde-à-vous (pour des funérailles dignes), et une cigarette allumée (pour se délecter). Le fondateur de SpaceX avait proposé à Tim Cook de racheter Tesla dans les années 2016-2017. Mais le patron d'Apple avait refusé d'en discuter avec lui.

Les dirigeants d'Apple ont finalisé leur décision il y a quelques jours, selon Bloomberg. Avant de trancher, ils avaient aussi envisagé de retarder la commercialisation de l'Apple Car à 2028, et de revoir à la baisse son degré d'autonomie (du niveau 4 au niveau 2+).

La voiture électrique fait aujourd'hui l'objet d'un match mondial de grande intensité, le pionnier Tesla étant défié par les nouveaux venus de l'automobile chinoise, BYD en tête, et par la réaction des acteurs traditionnels du secteur, de Volkswagen à Toyota en passant par Stellantis et Hyundai.

A la base, l'Apple Car devait être commercialisée à un prix proche de 100.000 dollars dès 2020, puis à horizon 2025. Mais le groupe craignait peut-être de ne pas être suffisamment différenciant face à Tesla, ou plus certainement de saboter ses marges généreuses dans les smartphones ou les services en ligne en se lançant dans la production industrielle de voitures.

Un métier qui réclame des investissements colossaux sur la durée, qui comporte également des contraintes réglementaires et des exigences de sécurité sans commune mesure avec l'électronique grand public. Si Sony ou Foxconn continuent d'avancer dans l'automobile, l'arbitrage a été différent chez Apple, qui doit réduire ses coûts, pour donner des gages au marché en agitant l'eldorado de l'IA, sur lequel Microsoft, Amazon et Google se sont précipités. Apple est en effet sur la défensive, après quatre trimestres de baisse des ventes et des perspectives assombries en Chine.

« Cette décision d'abandonner les voitures électriques pour basculer les ressources sur l'intelligence artificielle générative est un bon choix stratégique de notre point de vue, étant donné la rentabilité potentielle de l'IA par rapport à celle de l'automobile sur le long terme », jugent les analystes de Bloomberg Intelligence. Apple a dépensé 113 milliards de dollars en R&D ces cinq dernières années.

L'abandon du projet Titan, qui le prive d'un potentiel relais de croissance XXL après la réalité virtuelle, devrait permettre à Apple de distribuer sur un plus grand nombre de modèles automobiles son logiciel de navigation CarPlay, compatible avec l'iPhone et avec les commandes vocales de Siri. Apple ne sera plus en concurrence avec les constructeurs et pourra donc plus facilement monter à bord de leurs voitures.

https://quizlet.com/898309593/electric-vehicles-flash-cards/?i=oxtpk&x=1qqt

1. hybrid vehicle: A vehicle that uses both an electric motor and internal combus- tion engine for propulsion. This type of vehicle gets
better gas mileage and has lower emissions than conventional
vehicles.

2. internal combustion engine: an engine that burns fuel inside cylinders within the engine
3. engine idling: "Idling" refers to running a vehicle's engine when it's not moving, such as when you're at a red light or stuck in traffic

4. rechargeable: (adj) able to be recharged
5. compensate: to make up for; to repay for services
6. regenerative braking: vehicle braking system that stores some of the kinetic energy of a car as it slows down and uses this energy to power the car
7. frictional energy loss: occurs when flow energy is converted to heat as one object rubs against another
8. Off-Peak Charging: Charging your EV during the less busy times of day for a lower cost.
9. Range Anxiety: The worry that an EV will run out of battery power before you arrive at your destination.
10. Mild Hybrid: Mild hybrids also have a small electric motor, but unlike full hybrids, it is solely used to assist the petrol engine. The car cannot drive on battery power alone.
11. Home Charging: Plugging your electric car in to charge while it is parked at home, typically overnight. A dedicated home charging point is the best and safest way of doing this.
12. En-route Charging: En route charging typically requires high powered rapid chargers, that put >100 miles into your electric car in the time it takes to grab a coffee, a snack and use the facilities. This enables you to take long-distance trips in your electric car, but is not needed day-to-day.

https://quizlet.com/898640966/toyotas-hybrid-strategy-reassessed-flash-cards/?i=oxtpk&x=1jqt

1. Toyota's Hybrid Strategy: Toyota's focus on hybrid vehicles over fully electric cars, drawing criticism but proving profitable.
2. BEVs: Battery Electric Vehicles, facing challenges due to high prices and inade- quate charging infrastructure.

3. Hybrids vs. BEVs: Hybrids' rising market share and profitability compared to the slowing growth of BEVs.
4. Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs): Hybrids that can run on electric power and be charged at home, with expensive large batteries.

5. Full Hybrids: Hybrids with a smaller battery and traditional engine, cheaper to buy and run.
6. Hybrids' Profitability: Hybrids, especially full hybrids, have high margins sur- passing traditional engine-only cars and BEVs.

7. Toyota's Sales Forecast: Toyota aims to sell 5mn hybrids annually by 2025, contrasting with 3.5mn BEVs annually from 2030.
8. Hybrids in the US Market: Hybrids gaining popularity in the US, with Toyota, Honda, and Korean brands dominating.

9. Hybrids' Role in Industry Transition: Hybrids seen as crucial in the industry's transition, with Ford predicting a surge in hybrid sales.
10. Global Market Outlook: Toyota predicts BEV demand will plateau at 30%, paving the way for increased hybrid sales.

11. US Market Dynamics: US market seen as a battleground for hybrids' longevity, influenced by government policies and consumer preferences.
12. Hybrids in Europe: BEVs must dominate the European market to meet emis- sion targets, according to industry leaders.

13. Hybrids in China: China's aggressive targets for BEVs contrast with the US market's preference for hybrids.